UAE Disburses $1 Billion Loan to Pakistan as IMF Forecasts Increase in External Debt
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has extended a fresh loan of $1 billion to Pakistan, providing a much-needed boost as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a significant rise in Pakistan’s external debt to $136.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. This loan comes after the reopening of blocked financing pipelines, signifying an important milestone in the country’s financial stability.Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar, announced the deposit of $1 billion by the UAE with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), bringing the UAE’s total exposure to $3 billion. This places the UAE third in terms of cash deposits, following Saudi Arabia with $5 billion and China with $4 billion in the central bank.The UAE’s deposit follows Saudi Arabia’s recent deposit of $2 billion with the central bank, as part of a deal with the IMF. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE had withheld bailout funds until Pakistan returned to the IMF. With the recent staff-level agreement between Pakistan and the IMF, disbursements from both countries have now resumed.In parallel, the IMF has finalized its projections for Pakistan’s balance of payments in the medium term. Officials from the finance ministry indicate that the IMF expects Pakistan’s external debt stock to increase from an estimated $123.6 billion to $136.5 billion by June 2024.This projected $13 billion increase in debt stock is primarily attributed to high external debt repayment needs, financing of the current account deficit, and the requirement to increase foreign exchange reserves equivalent to 1.4 months of imports of goods and services. The IMF forecasts a slower pace of debt growth over the next four years, gradually reaching $153 billion by June 2028.These projections will be included in the Memorandum for Economic and Financial Policies document after the IMF approves the Stand-By Arrangement.The IMF has also projected a current account deficit of $6.4 billion for this fiscal year, equivalent to 1.8% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Additionally, Pakistan faces $25 billion in debt repayments, while the government aims to secure $15 billion in debt rollovers.The annual gross financing requirements for the next fiscal year are estimated at $28.4 billion, covering the servicing of the current account deficit and debt repayments.Foreign exchange reserves, which stood at $4.5 billion at the end of the last fiscal year, are projected to increase to $9 billion in the next fiscal year. With the recent loans from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, reserves have risen to $7.5 billion, and an additional boost of $1.2 billion is expected next week.Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has stated that reserves will soon reach $14 to $15 billion, which matches the level when the coalition government came into power. However, it should be noted that private reserves, consisting of depositors’ funds, are included in this assessment.Sustainable foreign exchange reserves can only be achieved if receipts from exports, foreign direct investment, and remittances significantly exceed import requirements. However, the IMF projects a net foreign direct investment of only around half a billion dollars for this fiscal year.The IMF has also highlighted the external public debt, under the responsibility of the federal government, which is expected to reach $107.7 billion by the end of this fiscal year, marking an increase of nearly $11 billion within a year.The recent IMF program is expected to increase disbursements of foreign loans from multilateral and bilateral creditors, as Pakistan’s financing pipelines had dried up due to strained relations with the IMF.Regarding trade, the IMF does not anticipate a significant increase in exports for this fiscal year. While exports are projected to rise by 10% to $30.8 billion in 2023-24, the planning minister has expressed optimism, aiming for an increase to $35 billion for this fiscal year. Imports are projected to reach $64 billion, representing a 20% increase. However, there is a projected reduction of $1 billion in oil imports, totaling $15.4 billion for this fiscal year. The trade deficit is expected to reach nearly $34 billion, increasing by approximately $10 billion.Import growth is projected to slow down after this fiscal year due to limited capacity to finance imports given the thin foreign exchange reserves cover. The IMF forecasts workers’ remittances to reach $33 billion, a 22% increase compared to the last fiscal year.
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