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Unexpected Drop in UK Inflation Puts Bank of England in a Bind Ahead of Rates Decision

by Swati Gupta

September 20, 2023 27

In a surprising turn of events, the inflation rate in the United Kingdom has unexpectedly slowed, potentially leading to a pause in the Bank of England’s ongoing series of interest rate hikes. This development has sent shockwaves through the financial markets, with the pound weakening, and investors speculating about the central bank’s next move.

The consumer price index (CPI) in the UK recorded a notable drop to an 18-month low of 6.7 percent in August. While this was only a slight decline from July’s 6.8 percent, it defied the expectations of economists and the Bank of England, both of whom had anticipated an increase in inflation. This unexpected decrease in inflation has raised the possibility of the Bank of England opting to keep interest rates steady at its upcoming September meeting.

Although strong wage growth in recent data still suggests a rate hike is a likely outcome, the surprising inflation figures have introduced an element of uncertainty. Chris Hare, an economist at HSBC, commented, “The big downside surprise to core inflation throws the Bank of England a major curveball.”

The value of the pound fell, with a drop of half a cent against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since May. It also depreciated against the euro, reflecting the uncertainty created by the unexpected slowdown in inflation.

The deceleration in inflation was primarily attributed to several factors, including a drop in often-volatile hotel prices and airfares, as well as food prices rising less compared to a year ago, as reported by the Office for National Statistics. These factors offset the impact of rising global fuel prices and an increase in the tax on alcoholic beverages.

Despite the decline, the UK’s inflation rate remains among the highest in Western Europe, surpassed only by Austria and Iceland in August. However, the core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, witnessed a significant decline from 6.9 percent in July to 6.2 percent in August. Additionally, service sector inflation, closely monitored by the Bank of England, also lost some momentum, slowing to 6.8 percent from 7.4 percent.

James Smith, an economist at ING, noted, “Thursday’s Bank of England meeting just got a lot more interesting.” He believes that while it’s a close call, the Bank is still likely to proceed with a rate hike, although this may be its last one for the time being.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, cautioned that recent increases in global oil prices and potential pressures on food prices could pose challenges for the Bank of England. She emphasized, “These could not only slow the disinflation process further but also reverse the decline in inflation expectations, causing further worry for the Bank of England.”

In the context of global monetary policy, the European Central Bank recently raised interest rates to a record high but indicated a likelihood of pausing further hikes. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates.

Additionally, there was positive news for the Bank of England as separate data revealed that wage deals had eased some of their inflationary pressures. This development provides a glimmer of hope amid the uncertainty surrounding inflation.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government welcomed the latest inflation figures as a sign that their plan to combat inflation is making progress. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt remarked, “Today’s news shows the plan to deal with inflation is working – plain and simple.” However, he acknowledged that inflation remained too high, emphasizing the importance of sticking to their strategy to halve it in order to relieve the financial burden on families and businesses.

Hunt also cautioned against excessive borrowing, taking a swipe at the opposition Labour Party, which has been gaining ground in opinion polls and has advocated for increased government spending. The government’s commitment to fiscal responsibility in the face of inflation remains a central issue in the political landscape.