Possible UAE departure from OPEC causes instability in oil prices.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, dropped by up to 2.8% on Friday morning in New York after reports that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is considering leaving the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a powerful oil producer alliance consisting of 13 members. However, Brent later regained its losses and turned positive, trading at $85.23 per barrel, up 0.57% on the previous day.
According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, the UAE is debating withdrawing from OPEC amid a growing rift between the country and its longtime ally, Saudi Arabia. The UAE wishes to pursue its own oil production plans that align with its interests and has for some time wanted to increase its crude output to boost its revenue. However, it has been limited by the production agreements of OPEC+, which are dominated by Saudi Arabia. If the UAE were to leave OPEC, it would significantly impact the oil producer group’s global clout.
The idea of the UAE leaving OPEC is not new; the country has reportedly debated leaving the oil alliance for years. However, the topic has been revived recently due to disagreements with Riyadh, which have manifested themselves in the two countries’ divergent aims in the ongoing Yemeni war, competing for foreign investment, and state visits.
In July 2021, a dispute over oil production levels temporarily froze OPEC’s ability to outline its plans for the markets, sending crude prices upward. Abu Dhabi had demanded that its own “baseline” for crude production, which is the maximum volume recognized by OPEC as being able to produce, be raised. This figure determines the size of production cuts and quotas that the UAE must follow as per the group’s output agreements. Members cut the same percentage from their baseline, so having a higher baseline would allow the UAE a greater production quota.
Initially, the UAE called for its baseline to be raised from 3.2 million barrels a day to 3.8 million barrels a day. The compromise eventually reached between Saudi Arabia and its smaller neighbor raised the UAE’s baseline to 3.65 million barrels per day from April 2022. While the Saudi and Emirati energy ministers praised each other and the work of the group of oil producers, the rift appeared to be a sign of things to come as economic and geopolitical competition between the two increase.
If the UAE leaves OPEC, it would be the third country to do so in four years, following Qatar in 2019 and Ecuador in 2020. This potential departure would rattle the group, especially considering that the UAE is one of OPEC’s largest oil producers and a key player in the global oil market.
In conclusion, the potential withdrawal of the UAE from OPEC would significantly impact the oil producer group’s global clout and allow the country to pursue its own oil production plans that suit its interests. It is not a new idea, but it has been revived recently due to disagreements with Saudi Arabia. The rift between the two countries appears to be a sign of things to come as economic and geopolitical competition increases.
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